System dynamics modeling of Chlamydia infection for screening intervention planning and cost–benefit estimation

System dynamics modeling of Chlamydia infection for screening intervention planning and cost–benefit estimation

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Article ID: iaor2008830
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 16
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 265
End Page Number: 279
Publication Date: Jul 2005
Journal: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics (Print)
Authors: , , ,
Keywords: soft systems, cost benefit analysis
Abstract:

Genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the UK. It constitutes a major public health problem given that the majority of infections are asymptomatic which can lead to serious long-term medical consequences if not treated. This paper describes a System Dynamics model for capturing Chlamydia infection dynamics within a population, incorporating the behaviour of different risk groups, and provides a cost–benefit study for screening using data collected from the Department of Health opportunistic Chlamydia screening programme in Portsmouth. Furthermore, we demonstrate that high-risk groups are key in determining the overall infection dynamics of the system, and quantify screening rates required to manage infection prevalence within the wider population.

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