A leading indicator approach to predicting short-term shifts in demand for business travel by air to and from the UK

This paper uses the probit model to examine whether leading indicator information could be used for the purpose of predicting short-term shifts in demand for business travel by air to and from the UK. Leading indicators considered include measures of business expectations, availability of funds for corporate travel and some well-known macroeconomic indicators. The model performance is evaluated on in- and out-of-sample basis, as well as against a linear leading indicator model, which is used to mimic the current forecasting practice in the air transport industry. The estimated probit model is shown to provide timely predictions of the early 1980s and 1990s industry recessions and is shown to be more accurate than the benchmark linear model.