Foresight in a research institution: a critical review of two exercises

Foresight is a powerful tool for imagining possible futures, for raising public awareness, for helping decision-making and addressing questions related to the relationship between science and society. In this article we make a critical analysis of two foresight exercises organized by a research institution. A precise description of the exercises conducted on the futures of the cocoa commodity chain and the hevea commodity chain helps to understand the possible processes of a foresight exercise, what foresight can achieve and what kinds of difficulties can occur. From these experiences, proposals are made to facilitate the development of strategic intelligence in a research institution and improve the linkages between foresight, evaluation and programme formulation. The role of foresight in transforming knowledge and in pushing a closed system into a political arena is also shown.