Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set

Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set

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Article ID: iaor200841
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 23
Issue: 6
Start Page Number: 405
End Page Number: 430
Publication Date: Sep 2004
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: financial, economics, world affairs
Abstract:

This paper uses forecast combination methods to forecast output growth in a seven-country quarterly economic data set covering 1959–1999, with up to 73 predictors per country. Although the forecasts based on individual predictors are unstable over time and across countries, and on average perform worse than an autoregressive benchmark, the combination forecasts often improve upon autoregressive forecasts. Despite the unstable performance of the constituent forecasts, the most successful combination forecasts, like the mean, are the least sensitive to the recent performance of the individual forecasts. While consistent with other evidence on the success of simple combination forecasts, this finding is difficult to explain using the theory of combination forecasting in a stationary environment.

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