An expeditious risk assessment of the highway transportation of flammable liquids in bulk

Risk assessment can be expedited and the results made more reliable by using existing information to its fullest advantage, especially when comparing relative risks. This principle is demonstrated in the context of transporting flammable liquid chemicals in bulk through New York City, where two alternative tank truck configurations are considered, depending on whether local fire department regulations or federal hazardous materials transportation regulations are followed. Spreadsheet calculations are used to estimate the risks on two different routes under average and worst-case assumptions. The results are subjected to an uncertainty analysis to help decide between the two alternatives, given the inherent randomness in the associated risks.