Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of anthrax

Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of anthrax

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Article ID: iaor20073815
Country: United States
Volume: 51
Issue: 5
Start Page Number: 679
End Page Number: 694
Publication Date: May 2005
Journal: Management Science
Authors: , ,
Keywords: biology, queues: applications
Abstract:

To aid in understanding how best to respond to a bioterror anthrax attack, we analyze a system of differential equations that includes an atmospheric release model, a spatial array of biosensors, a dose–response model, a disease progression model, and a set of spatially distributed tandem queues for distributing antibiotics and providing hospital care. We derive approximate closed-form expressions for the number of deaths as a function of key parameters and management levers, including the size of the attack, the time at which the attack is detected via symptomatic patients, the number of days to distribute antibiotics, the efficacy (both for treatment and prevention) of antibiotics, the prophylactic antibiotic distribution strategy, the prioritization of the antibiotics queue, and the detection limit, deployment density, and delay time of biosensors.

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