Forecast analysis of user number of domestic new airport based on the shortest travel time

This research forecasts the effect of the location of a new airport to the movement in four main islands of Japan (Hokkaido, Mainland, Shikoku, and Kyushu). As for the effect, the number of user forecasts based on the shortest travel time between cities is judged as an index. We make a traffic network model to simulate the shortest travel time between cities including waiting time. A new airport is added to this model, and the number of users is estimated. Flight service of the new airport is set from the composition of the flight service of neighboring existing airports. The mechanism of the flight setting is called ‘flight transfer system’. By the data of user numbers of exisitng airports and flight transfer system, we estimate the user number of a new airport. Center areas near Tokyo may find it difficult to catch enough users and be adequate points of new airport, because Shinkansen, Japanese high speed train system, runs in the areas and carries many travelers. It becomes clear that appropriate points for new airport are far from Shinkansen and Tokyo.