The bang–soak theory of missile attack and terminal defense

This paper describes a spreadsheet-level model for analyzing attacks by a small, mixed collection of ICBMs, perhaps including decoys, on a set of targets individually defended by terminal ABMs. The central questions are how a fixed supply of ABMs should be divided up among the targets, and the resulting effectiveness of the optimized defense. All ABMs are assumed perfect in the sense that each ABM eliminates the reentry vehicle at which it is aimed. Since the ABM assignments are apparent to the attacker, he can ‘soak them up’ by presenting the appropriate number of his least effective reentry vehicles to the subject target. The target is then vulnerable to any remaining ‘bangs’ among the attackers.