Hot-hand effects in sports and a recursive method of computing probabilities for streaks

Hot-hand effects in sports and a recursive method of computing probabilities for streaks

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor20071962
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 33
Issue: 7
Start Page Number: 1983
End Page Number: 2001
Publication Date: Jul 2006
Journal: Computers and Operations Research
Authors:
Keywords: markov processes, statistics: distributions
Abstract:

We give a recursive method of computing probabilities associated with the waiting time to the first occurrence of a run of arbitrary length in Markovian trials of a general order. Using data from the Oakland Athletics' 2002 season as an example, we show that the assumed model order can make a large difference in computed probabilities. The algorithm is then applied to the computation of probabilities associated with strikes and nonstrikes in bowling. After showing that there is significant deviation from a model of Bernoulli trials for data from the 2003–2004 Professional Bowlers Association tour, we suggest a criterion based on the longest success run for choosing the order of Markovian dependence that gives the best fit to the streakiness characteristics of an individual bowler's data.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.