Article ID: | iaor20071349 |
Country: | United States |
Volume: | 6 |
Issue: | 2 |
Publication Date: | Jan 2005 |
Journal: | INFORMS Transactions on Education |
Authors: | Coleman B. Jay |
Keywords: | forecasting: applications, education in OR |
Hurricane season presents an excellent illustration of a wide range of issues encountered in developing and responding to business forecasts. The high profile of hurricane forecasts – particularly during the 2004 season in which four hurricanes made landfall in Florida, and during the 2005 season when hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the surrounding region – makes them a convenient, visible, and ideal illustrative classroom example. This paper outlines 25 business forecasting principles and their direct parallels in hurricane forecasting. This compilation has been successfully used by author as a basis for an in-class review of forecasting in an undergraduate operations management introductory course. A report of the positive student feedback and comparative test results is provided.