Forecasting: Trying to reason from hurricane season

Forecasting: Trying to reason from hurricane season

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Article ID: iaor20071349
Country: United States
Volume: 6
Issue: 2
Publication Date: Jan 2005
Journal: INFORMS Transactions on Education
Authors:
Keywords: forecasting: applications, education in OR
Abstract:

Hurricane season presents an excellent illustration of a wide range of issues encountered in developing and responding to business forecasts. The high profile of hurricane forecasts – particularly during the 2004 season in which four hurricanes made landfall in Florida, and during the 2005 season when hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the surrounding region – makes them a convenient, visible, and ideal illustrative classroom example. This paper outlines 25 business forecasting principles and their direct parallels in hurricane forecasting. This compilation has been successfully used by author as a basis for an in-class review of forecasting in an undergraduate operations management introductory course. A report of the positive student feedback and comparative test results is provided.

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