Article ID: | iaor20071047 |
Country: | United States |
Volume: | 3 |
Issue: | 3 |
Start Page Number: | 177 |
End Page Number: | 193 |
Publication Date: | Sep 2006 |
Journal: | Decision Analysis |
Authors: | Budescu David V., Yechiam Eldad |
Keywords: | heuristics |
This paper examines the sensitivity of probability judgments pertaining to real-world events (e.g., the chance of getting a speeding ticket) to the events' time horizon (e.g., 1, 2, or 8 weeks) and performer characteristics (e.g., 1, 2, and 8 drivers). Using the participants' multiple responses to different time horizons and number of performers, we assessed the degree of deviance from the normative prescription and potential explanations for such deviance. In Study 1, two questionnaires were administered to a sample of 120 students. In the first questionnaire, in violation of the normative disjunctive model, most participants did not adjust probabilities sufficiently for various time horizons. This pattern cannot be attributed merely to regression to the mean with a fixed error term (Erev