The effect of crowd density on the expected number of casualties in a suicide attact

The effect of crowd density on the expected number of casualties in a suicide attact

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Article ID: iaor20063489
Country: United States
Volume: 52
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 22
End Page Number: 29
Publication Date: Feb 2005
Journal: Naval Research Logistics
Authors:
Keywords: health services, accidents, behaviour
Abstract:

Utilizing elementary geometric and probability considerations, we estimate the effect of crowd blocking in suicide bombing events. It is shown that the effect is quite significant. Beyond a certain threshold, the expected number of casualties decreases with the number of people in the arena. The numerical results of our model are consistent with casualty data from suicide bombing events in Israel. Some operational insights are discussed.

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