Project duration estimation and risk analysis using intra- and inter-project learning for partially repetitive projects

Project duration estimation and risk analysis using intra- and inter-project learning for partially repetitive projects

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Article ID: iaor20063276
Country: South Korea
Volume: 30
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 137
End Page Number: 149
Publication Date: Sep 2005
Journal: Journal of the Korean ORMS Society
Authors:
Keywords: learning, risk
Abstract:

This study proposes a framework enhancing the accuracy of estimation for project duration by combining linear Bayesian updating scheme with the learning curve effect. Activities in a particular project might share resources in various forms and might be affected by risk factors such as weather. Statistical dependence stemming from such resource or risk sharing might help us learn about the duration of upcoming activities in the Bayesian model. We illustrate, using a Monte Carlo simulation, that for partially repetitive projects a higher degree of statistical dependence among activity duration results in more variation in estimating the project duration in total, although more accurate forecasting is achieveble for the duration of an individual activity.

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