An analysis of a strategic decision in the sport of curling

We apply decision analysis to an important decision in the sport of curling. In particular, we examine the choice between taking a single point or blanking an end in the latter stages of a curling game. There are benefits and drawbacks associated with each alternative. Taking a single point provides the team with an additional point but transfers the last-shot advantage to the opposition. Blanking an end foregoes an additional point but retains the last-shot advantage. Based on the observation of world-class competitions, North American curlers will always attempt to blank an end, while their European counterparts have been known to opt for the single point. We develop a decision tree to conceptualize the choices. Then, we use data from over 900 national championship curling games to empirically determine the expected values of each alternative. Our results indicate that blanking the end is the better alternative.