Exponential smoothing methods in pension funding

Exponential smoothing methods in pension funding

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Article ID: iaor20062717
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 14
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 129
End Page Number: 143
Publication Date: Apr 2003
Journal: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics (Print)
Authors: ,
Keywords: time series & forecasting methods
Abstract:

‘Smoothed-market’ methods are used by actuaries, when they value pension plan assets, in order to dampen the volatility in contribution rates recommended to plan sponsors. A method involving exponential smoothing is considered. The dynamics of the pension funding process is investigated in the context of a simple model where asset gains and losses emerge as a result of random rates of investment return and where the gains and losses are spread. It is shown that smoothing market values up to a point does improve the stability of contributions but excessive smoothing is inefficient. It is also shown that consideration should be given to the combined effect of the asset valuation and gain and loss adjustment methods. Practical and efficient combinations of gain/loss spreading periods and asset value smoothing parameters are suggested.

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