Progress functions: A general model

This paper offers a general model of the manufacturing progress phenomenon. It is suggested that manufacturing progress can be described and its course predicted by two empirical equations. The first equation, a power function, describes the startup, while the second equation describes the relationship between the parameters of the first. The model is strongly supported by data from startups of 172 products and processes that occurred in several countries and facilities. To be useful for production decisions, parameter estimates far in advance of production are necessary. This has been the Achilles’ heel of models that depend on the production of the first unit to get started. The proposed parameter model removes this obstacle, thus providing an effective means of predicting the parameters of a new startup.