A framework for incorporating climate regime shifts into the management of marine resources

It is possible to use an ecosystem-based management approach to incorporate knowledge of climate regime impacts on ecosystem productivity to manage fishery resources. To do so, it requires the development of a coherent framework that can be built using existing stock assessment and management activities: ecosystem assessment, risk analyses, adaptive management and reference points. This paper builds such a framework and uses two population simulations to illustrate the benefits and tradeoffs of variable regime-specific harvest rates. The framework does not require prediction of regime shifts, but assumes that detection can occur soon after one has happened. As such, decisions do not need to be coincident to regime shifts, but can be delayed by an appropriate period of time that is linked to a species' life history, i.e. age of maturity or recruitment. Fisheries scientists should provide harvest recommendations that reflect a range of levels of risk to the stock under different assumptions of productivity. Coupling ecosystem assessment with ecosystem-based management would allow managers to select appropriate regime-specific harvest rates.