On the risk of nutrition control by selective menus

The probability of compliance with nutrient standards is estimated by simulated choices from selective menus. For a five day cycle of school lunch sample menus, planned without regard for choice-induced nutrient variations, the joint probability measure of meeting all the standards is 0.55 in the best case, 0.03, in the worst case, and 0.04 in an intermediate case for three simulation scenarios. The lower figures reveal a shortage of excess calories to compensate for permissible refusal (skipping) of some courses. The simulations provide adjustment guidelines for the nutrient standards. An important byproduct of the simulations is the identification of selectable feasible meals. A sequence of these meals, offered as choices, meets long term standards with certainty.