A study on a forecasting the demand for the future mobile communication service by integrating mobile communication technology

In this paper, we have developed a technology–service relationship model which describes the diffusion process of a group of services and relevant technologies, and have applied the developed model to the prediction of the number of subscribers to the next generation mobile service. The technology–service relationship model developed in this paper incorporates the developing process of relevant technologies, a supply-side factor, into the diffusion process of specific services, while many diffusion models and multi-generation diffusion models in previous researches mainly reflect the demand-side factors. So, the proposed model could effectively be applied to the telecommunication services where the developing of the relevant technologies are very essential to the service penetration. In our application, the proposed model provides a competitive substitution between the next generation mobile service and the traditional mobile service.