Dynamic modelling of ethnic conflicts

The paper presents two formal models of ethnic conflicts: an agent-based model of ethnic mobilization and a system-dynamics model of societal conflicts. Models are based on recent social-science theories of preconditions, causes, and dynamics of ethnic violence and on experience in the former Yugoslavia in the last two decades. We present the architecture and main models' elements, and roughly compare their dynamics with observed patterns of behavior in the Yugoslav crisis. We conclude that computerized modeling of ethnic conflicts and similar complex social behavior cannot predict or accurately replicate real-world events, but can help in developing and understanding relevant scientific concepts and theories.