A causal mapping approach to constructing Bayesian networks

A causal mapping approach to constructing Bayesian networks

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Article ID: iaor20051004
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 38
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 259
End Page Number: 281
Publication Date: Nov 2004
Journal: Decision Support Systems
Authors: ,
Keywords: probability
Abstract:

This paper describes a systematic procedure for constructing Bayesian networks from domain knowledge of experts using the causal mapping approach. We outline how causal knowledge of experts can be represented as causal maps, and how the graphical structure of causal maps can be modified to construct Bayes nets. Probability encoding techniques can be used to assess the numerical parameters of the resulting Bayes nets. We illustrate the construction of a Bayes net starting from a causal map of a systems analyst in the context of an information technology application outsourcing decision.

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