Comparative assessment of forecasts

A novel analysis method for deciding upon, and improving, the comparative goodness of competing forecast methods is described. The approach is based upon the centred forecast observation diagram of change, which has been extended to include measures of analysis and supplemented with the recently developed measures of comparative error described in this contribution. The method has application in any situation where there is a need to undertake comparison of competing forecasting methods or where comparative assessments of a given variable are to be undertaken. The method is simple to understand and apply and has proven to be extremely useful in improving focus on deficiencies in forecasting methods.