A ground-level ozone forecasting model for Santiago, Chile

A physically based model for ground-level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formulism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations – for low and high ozone impacts – with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two- and three-days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago.