Mode locking and chaos in a deterministic queueing model with feedback

Mode locking and chaos in a deterministic queueing model with feedback

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Article ID: iaor20042028
Country: United States
Volume: 49
Issue: 6
Start Page Number: 816
End Page Number: 830
Publication Date: Jan 2003
Journal: Management Science
Authors: , ,
Keywords: simulation
Abstract:

We consider a simple, deterministic queueing system with feedback, which exhibits the phenomena of sustained oscillation, mode locking, quasi-periodic behaviour, and chaos. This implies that a fully deterministic queueing system can exhibit seemingly unpredictable behaviour. We ignore variability, and focus on two forms of feedback: (i) the service rate increases as queue length increases, and (ii) the arrival rate depends on customers' perception of past waiting times. We model a customer's decision to seek service as a two-stage process: (i) deciding whether or not to use a facility, and (ii) deciding the frequency of visit (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.). This frequency is initially constant, and later on replaced by a deterministic, time-dependent pattern. Although highly stylised, this model captures the essential features of many real-life systems whose average arrival rate varies over time. Reducing the amplitude of cycles in demand makes the system more predictable and thus easier to manage. Although we represent this model as a queue of customers waiting for service, the model can be interpreted more generally as any situation where an increase in demand lowers the quality of service.

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