Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal extension

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal extension

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Article ID: iaor1988422
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 8
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 129
End Page Number: 140
Publication Date: Apr 1989
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Abstract:

When quantitative models are used for short-term multi-item sales forecasts it is possible that the managers who use such forecasts may disagree with at least some of the estimates obtained, and wish to change them so that they become more consistent with their own (subjective) evaluation of the marketplace. This study reports on an analysis of the effectiveness of judgemental revision of sales forecasts over six quarterly forecasting periods. The results give general support for the practice of forecast manipulation as a means of improving forecasting accuracy. It is also observed that the effectiveness of revision activity varies across different time periods.

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