| Article ID: | iaor20033245 |
| Country: | Japan |
| Volume: | 45 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 27 |
| End Page Number: | 35 |
| Publication Date: | Mar 2002 |
| Journal: | Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan |
| Authors: | Rostamy Ali Asghar Anvary, Azar Adel, Farazmand Mehran Hosseiny |
| Keywords: | fuzzy sets, markov processes |
In this paper, we investigated mathematical models on reservoir operation problem and provided a fuzzy model based on Markov chain time series for Karkheh dam in Iran. Based on fuzzy partitioning of monthly streamflows, calculated by time series, a Markovian forecasting model was developed. A deterministic and a fuzzy partitioning stochastic dynamic programming model were formulated for the problem. The goals were formulated with weighting priorities and the optimal reservoir operation was determined. Usung historical data, the performance of the dam was simulated. Results of this simulation clearly showed that the fuzzy partitioning proposed stochastic model outperforms the deterministic model.