Supply planning for industrial ecology and remanufacturing under uncertainty: A numerical study of leaded-waste recovery from television disposal

The use of waste as a raw material for manufacturing is hampered by the uncertainty associated with the availability of supply. Technological change and obsolescence further complicates the ability of decision makers to consider discarded durable products as a potential source of raw materials. This uncertainty complicates remanufacturing and industrial ecology. A problem since remanufacturing and industrial ecology need to be (and can be) profitable as well as environmentally desirable if they are to be encouraged. To address this problem the modelling of the waste flow of durable goods is considered. The disposal of televisions in the United States is used to illustrate the challenges and requriements for forecasting in an environment with supply uncertainty. This example is timely since the disposal of cathode ray tubes (CRTs) in municipal landfills is being banned and an alternate technology trajectory for televisions exists – the flat panel display and phase-out of analogue broadcasting in the US. This paper estimates the waste stream resulting from three different scenarios of CRT leaded-waste disposal patterns. The reuse of lead-containing CRT glass is found to offer potential. The elimination of this controversial waste stream, as a result of replacement by the adoption of flat panel television technology, is still decades away. The findings in this study indicate the range of the quantity of waste that will require an alternative infrastructure as it is displaced from municipal landfills. This study provides important information for both developing a collection infrastructure and processing alternatives to extract the residual value of the disposed of televisions.