Article ID: | iaor20031793 |
Country: | United Kingdom |
Volume: | 53 |
Issue: | 11 |
Start Page Number: | 1281 |
End Page Number: | 1285 |
Publication Date: | Nov 2002 |
Journal: | Journal of the Operational Research Society |
Authors: | Silver E.A., Robb D.J. |
Keywords: | time series & forecasting methods |
Combining moving averages has been suggested as a simple and practical means to improve sales forecasting. Here we present a natural extension whereby combinations of all possible moving averages up to a given number of periods are employed. We evaluate the method's performance relative to other methods, such as simple moving averages and exponentially-weighted moving averages, on two industrial data sets. Particular attention is placed on methods for selecting the number of periods employed, and on handling noisy data.