Recombinant uncertainty in technological search

Recombinant uncertainty in technological search

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Article ID: iaor20031724
Country: United States
Volume: 47
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 117
End Page Number: 132
Publication Date: Jan 2001
Journal: Management Science
Authors:
Abstract:

While the course of technological change is widely accepted to be highly uncertain and unpredictable, little work has identified or studied the ultimate sources and causes of that uncertainty. This paper proposes that purely technological uncertainty derives from inventors' search processes with unfamiliar components and component combinations. Experimentation with new components and new combinations leads to less useful inventions on average, but it also implies an increase in the variability that can result in both failure and breakthrough. Negative binomial count and dispersion models with patent citation data demonstrate that new combinations are indeed more variable. In contrast to predictions, however, the reuse of components has a nonmonotonic and eventually positive effect on variability.

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