Measuring the success of the NATO operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina 1995–2000

NATO's Implementation Force (IFOR) was deployed to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on 20 December 1995. Their purpose was to oversee and implement the military aspects of the General Framework Agreement for Peace (GFAP) as signed by the representatives of BiH, Croatia and the Former Republic of Yugoslavia on 14 December 1995. During the 11-month IFOR operation a small operational analysis (OA) element was used in BiH by the IFOR to help assess the strategic success of the campaign by monitoring the response of the Former Warring Factions and the local populace to the stable situation created by the IFOR. The subsequent NATO Stabilisation Force (SFOR) replaced the IFOR in November 1996 and continued the NATO peacekeeping operation, with a greater emphasis on stabilisation as opposed to pure implementation of the military aspects of the GFAP. A separate operations research element deployed to support the SFOR, and to continue and expand the monitoring of the campaign. This paper briefly describes the methodologies used by the analysts during the operation, the reasons behind the adoption of each methodology and gives some examples of the outputs. The relative utility of the activity to the NATO command chain is also highlighted.