Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

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Article ID: iaor2003880
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 53
Issue: 9
Start Page Number: 953
End Page Number: 960
Publication Date: Sep 2002
Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Authors: ,
Keywords: finance & banking, communications
Abstract:

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.

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