A forecasting comparison of classical and Bayesian methods for modelling logistic diffusion

A forecasting comparison of classical and Bayesian methods for modelling logistic diffusion

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor20031244
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 20
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 231
End Page Number: 247
Publication Date: Jul 2001
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Abstract:

A Bayesian procedure for forecasting S-shaped growth is introduced and compared to classical methods of estimation and prediction using three variants of the logistic functional form and annual times series of the diffusion of music compact discs in twelve countries. The Bayesian procedure was found not only to improve forecast accuracy, using the medians of the predictive densities as point forecasts, but also to produce intervals with a width and asymmetry more in accord with the outcomes than intervals from the classical alternative. While the analysis in this paper focuses on logistic growth, the problem is set up so that the methods are transportable to other characterizations of the growth process.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.