| Article ID: | iaor2003283 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 37E |
| Issue: | 5 |
| Start Page Number: | 337 |
| End Page Number: | 354 |
| Publication Date: | Nov 2001 |
| Journal: | Transportation Research. Part E, Logistics and Transportation Review |
| Authors: | Adrangi Bahram, Chatrath Arjun, Raffiee Kambiz |
| Keywords: | measurement |
This paper examines the behavior of the US airline industry's service demand. Monthly aggregate data for the industry are analyzed. While we find strong evidence of nonlinear dependence in the air transport service time series, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. We also show that GARCH models successfully explain the nonlinear structures in the US airline industry's service series. Finally, within-sample forecasts of air transport demand from the GARCH models outperform those of simple autoregressive models.