On the study of China's grain output prediction

Feeding 1.2 billion Chinese is a critical issue both for China and for the world. This paper presents a systematic integrated method, with the key elements of input-occupancy-output analysis, nonlinear variable coefficient forecasting equations, and minimum sum of absolute value technique to predict China's grain output. Since 1980 this approach has been successfully implemented in China, and is appreciated by China's top leaders and responsible governmental agencies.