A Bayesian approach to a dynamic inventory model under an unknown demand distribution

A Bayesian approach to a dynamic inventory model under an unknown demand distribution

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Article ID: iaor20022108
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 29
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 403
End Page Number: 422
Publication Date: Apr 2002
Journal: Computers and Operations Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: programming: dynamic
Abstract:

In this paper, the Bayesian approach to demand estimation is outlined for the cases of stationary as well as non-stationary demand. The optimal policy is derived for an inventory model that allows stock disposal, and is shown to be the solution of a dynamic programming backward recursion. Then, a method is given to search for the optimal order level around the myopic order level. Finally, a numerical study is performed to make a profit comparison between the Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches, when the demand follows a stationary lognormal distribution. A profit comparison is also made between the stationary and non-stationary Bayesian approaches to observe whether the Bayesian approach incorporates non-stationarity in the demand. And, it is observed whether stock disposal reduces the losses due to ignoring non-stationarity in the demand.

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