Modelling police success in catching burglars in the act

This paper is concerned with determining which factors influence the chances of the police catching the domestic burglar in the act. It is based on a 6-month study of ‘in progress’ burglary, funded by the UK Home Office's Policing and Crime Reducing Unit. Data were collected from the police records for the whole of a Regional Police Force. Binary regression models are developed which indicate the relative importance of individual burglary characteristics and the nature of the police response in determining the chance of a successful arrest at, or near, the crime-scene. Adjustments to the resourcing and organisation of police patrolling in order to improve capture rates are likely to prove successful only where burglary circumstances are favourable.