Risk assessment of a new high-speed railway

A quantitative risk assessment has been carried out for the conceptual stage of the proposed Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL). The assessment is one of the first for a railway system. It includes an integrated computer model. The whole risk model for the CTRL from base event data, through fault and event trees, to individual, collective, and societal risks is processed using Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets. Variations to the design and operational assumptions and to the input data can be introduced into the model, and the effect on risk calculated rapidly. This versatility is particularly useful because of the early stage of the project. It can be used to assist designers in consideration of possible design changes.