Bayesian belief nets for managing expert judgement and modelling reliability

Bayesian belief nets for managing expert judgement and modelling reliability

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Article ID: iaor2002193
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 17
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 181
End Page Number: 190
Publication Date: Jun 2001
Journal: Quality and Reliability Engineering International
Authors: , ,
Abstract:

Bayesian belief nets (BBNs) provide an effective way of reasoning under uncertainty. They have a firm mathematical background in probability theory and have been used in a variety of application areas, including reliability. BBNs can provide alternative representations of fault trees and reliability block diagrams. BBNs can be used to incorporate expert judgement formally into the modelling process. It has been claimed BBNs may overcome some of the limitations of standard reliability techniques. This paper presents an overview of BBNs and illustrates their use through a simple tutorial on system reliability modelling. The use of BBNs in reliability to date is reviewed. The challenge of using BBNs in reliability practice is explored and areas of research are identified.

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