| Article ID: | iaor20014254 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 19 |
| Issue: | 7 |
| Start Page Number: | 575 |
| End Page Number: | 586 |
| Publication Date: | Dec 2000 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Authors: | Cain Michael, Law David, Peel David A. |
| Keywords: | sports |
The paper examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. Previous econometric work on the subject has been based on least squares estimators, and has been marred by non-normal errors, which have cast doubt on standard hypothesis testing procedures. It is found that the negative binomial distribution provides a good description of points scored in NFL football games, but no significant departures from market efficiency were discovered.