Numerical and verbal decision analysis: Comparison on practical cases

Numerical decision analysis, derived from statistical decision theory, is very well known. Verbal decision analysis, oriented towards so-called unstructured problems, where the qualitative and uncertain factors dominate, is a newer direction in decision theory and practice. Verbal and numerical decision analyses have been compared in an experimental setting, with groups of students. This paper presents the results of a comparison in the context of live practical tasks. Both approaches were attempted on two comparable choices, facing both Russian and US government agencies, involving a choice between oil and gas transportation options. The resulting methodological insights are generalized into a systematic comparison of the strong and weak features of each approach.