Article ID: | iaor20013172 |
Country: | Netherlands |
Volume: | 17 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 121 |
End Page Number: | 128 |
Publication Date: | Jan 2001 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Franses Philip Hans, Fok Dennis |
Keywords: | forecasting: applications |
Dividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales–response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this note we propose as an alternative a simulation-based method which results in unbiased forecasts of market shares. An application of this forecasting technique to a five brand tuna fish market illustrates its practical relevance.