Forecasting market shares from models for sales

Forecasting market shares from models for sales

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Article ID: iaor20013172
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 17
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 121
End Page Number: 128
Publication Date: Jan 2001
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

Dividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales–response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this note we propose as an alternative a simulation-based method which results in unbiased forecasts of market shares. An application of this forecasting technique to a five brand tuna fish market illustrates its practical relevance.

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