Development and evaluation of a hybrid travel time forecasting model

Development and evaluation of a hybrid travel time forecasting model

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Article ID: iaor20012848
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 8C
Issue: 1/6
Start Page Number: 231
End Page Number: 256
Publication Date: Feb 2000
Journal: Transportation Research. Part C, Emerging Technologies
Authors: ,
Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to develop and evaluate a hybrid travel time forecasting model with geographic information systems (GIS) technologies for predicting link travel times in congested road networks. In a separate study by You and Kim, a non-parametric regression model has been developed as a core forecasting algorithm to reduce computation time and increase forecasting accuracy. Using the core forecasting algorithm, a prototype hybrid forecasting model has been developed and tested by deploying GIS technologies in the following areas: (1) storing, retrieving, and displaying traffic data to assist in the forecasting procedures, (2) building road network data, and (3) integrating historical databases and road network data. This study shows that adopting GIS technologies in link travel time forecasting is efficient for achieving two goals: (1) reducing computational delay and (2) increasing forecasting accuracy.

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