Quantitative decision making for cued land reconnaissance: A defence case study

Helping commanders make more informed decisions is one of the most important roles played by defence operations analysts. This paper presents a defence case study of quantitative decision making. It develops a decision model for cued land reconnaissance missions that treats detecting, identifying, and destroying a hostile target to protect an asset as an integral process. The paper investigates issues such as whether an information assessment system, which provides improved knowledge about the nature of the cue, is necessary and what kind of reconnaissance platforms should be used under various conditions. Using a decision tree and evaluating all possible outcomes, the model derives the best course of action based on expected values. Then serials of sensitivity analysis are carried out to account for uncertainties of the scenarios, and their implications are explored. This illustrates that decision tree methodology can be used to analyse complex sequential decision problems in real military situations and uncertainties can be taken into account in the decision making process.