A simulation model of the spread of hepatitis C within a closed cohort

Many of the epidemics that have been given much publicity in recent years such as AIDS and hepatitis C, are caused by blood borne viruses. Most of these diseases cause long term illnesses and can often be fatal. Apart from the loss of life, the disease phase also makes considerable demands on the health system. As these viruses are spread through direct contact between individuals, changing the factors that contribute to their transmission may be useful in controlling the epidemics. This paper presents a simulation model of the spread of blood borne viruses that can be used to evaluate the effects of such influences. The model is applied to the spread of the hepatitis C virus and is validated using published results from a cohort study of injecting drug users.