Adaptive time dynamic model for production volume prediction

Adaptive time dynamic model for production volume prediction

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Article ID: iaor20011130
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 38
Issue: 13
Start Page Number: 3111
End Page Number: 3130
Publication Date: Jan 2000
Journal: International Journal of Production Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: location
Abstract:

Data from a continuously operating high volume lathe were collected over a period of a number of months. This machine would periodically fail and unplanned maintenance was often necessary. Failures were due to a myriad of causes. At the beginning of each month, management was required to estimate production output for the month. This paper shows how this goal might be facilitated via a sequence of Bayesian models analysing previous data. The validity of the procedure is justified by an empirical study.

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