Comparison of centroid and simulation approaches for selection sensitivity analysis

On January 14, 1997, the Department of Energy, Office of Fissile Materials Disposition completed a comparative analysis of alternative methods to dispose weapons-grade plutonium and made a final recommendation. This analysis considered the three overall objectives of minimizing proliferation of plutonium, selecting the method that was the most efficient in terms of time and expense, and minimizing detrimental impact on the environment, safety and health. At the request of OFMD, a team of analysis from the Amarillo National Resource Center for Plutonium (ANRCP) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory provided an independent evaluation of the alternatives for the disposition of surplus weapons-grade plutonium that were considered during this effort. This decision support process was conducted in parallel with the OFMD analysis. With the help of OFMD technical experts a multi-attribute utility analysis was applied, and numerous sensitivity analyses conducted. In addition to a standard sensitivity analysis of the weights, two additional types of high-dimensional sensitivity analysis were applied: a variant of the SMARTER technique and a simulation approach. In this paper, OFMD's selection problem will be used as a means of comparing and contrasting these two techniques.