Estimating demand for a cycle-way network

We study the use of bicycles as an alternative mode of transport in Santiago. We consider the incorporation of a dense network of cycle-ways, fully segregated from motorised traffic, and the inclusion of adequate bicycle shelter facilities at Metro, suburban train and selected segregated bus-way stations. We designed and applied a methodology which included: (i) a review of national and international experience; (ii) focus group surveys; (iii) a household survey including stated preference experiments for potential bicycle users; (iv) estimation of various models with these data, and (v) model application using extra data available for the whole of the city. Our results indicate that there are sectors of the city where bikes could capture more than 10% of the trips, and that, on average, the use of bicycles could jump from its current 1.6% to approximately 5.8%. Finally, our results show clearly that trip length is a fundamental variable; therefore, land use policies geared to the development of urban sub-centres could have significant impact in the future of this clean and efficient mode of transport.