A sampling procedure to estimate risk probabilities in access-control security systems

Access-control security systems found in airports typically involve sophisticated technologies and procedures, and their associated sensitivity settings. These settings are often calibrated by the level of threat believed to be present in the environment. Determining this threat level can be quite challenging, but is essential to optimize system security. This paper presents a non-intrusive sampling procedure based on the observed number of alarms and clears that occur during security-system operations. The procedure can be used to estimate the threat probability, the probability that a given alarm is false and the probability that a given clear is false in access-control security systems. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the utility of these estimators.