We propose a new method of modeling the relationship between on-time performance and market share in the airline industry. The idea behind the method is that the passengers' decision to remain (use same airline) or switch (use other airlines) at time t depends on whether they have experienced flight delays at time t – 1 or not. More specifically, we posit that the passengers who experienced flight delays are more likely to switch airlines for the subsequent flight than those passengers who did not experience delays. To capture such effect, we develop an aggregate-level Markovian type model that estimates the transition probability matrices separately for the passengers who experienced flight delays at time t – 1 and for those who did not experience delays. The model was calibrated with the US DOT data. The study results imply that, once experiencing flight delays, passengers are more likely to switch airlines. The results also imply that on-time performance affects a carrier's market share primarily through the passengers' experience, and not through the ‘advertisement’ of performance.
