| Article ID: | iaor20002895 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 32 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 71 |
| End Page Number: | 84 |
| Publication Date: | Jan 2000 |
| Journal: | Accident Analysis and Prevention |
| Authors: | Beenstock Michael, Gafni Dalit |
| Keywords: | statistics: regression, time series & forecasting methods |
A theoretical model is proposed in which road safety in a single country depends upon parochial considerations, such as police enforcement, and upon global considerations, such as international road safety technology. We show that there is a non-spurious relationship between the downward trend in the rate of road accidents in Israel and the road accident rate abroad. We suggest that this reflects the international propagation of road safety technology as it is embodied in motor vehicles and road design, rather than parochial road safety policy. Recent developments in the econometric analysis of time series are used to estimate the model using data for Israel. We make no direct attempt to explain the downward trend in the rate of road accidents outside Israel.